The quest to predict this year’s Oscar winners with the same mathematical precision that fivethirtyeight blogger Nate Silver called the 2012 presidential election has got a new contestant. The filmmaking website The Credits has teamed up with the social analytics and monitoring company Brandwatch, to create a predictive data visualization that it has dubbed “Social Oscars.” East Coast Editor Bryan Abrams says the algorithm, which was created by British quant Edward Crook, predicts the Oscar front-runners by focusing on the positive mentions that nominated films, directors and actors generate via critics and social media such as Facebook and Twitter.
Abrams explains that the algorithm is created to filter out mentions that are negative or that don’t specifically pertain to a nominated film or an actor’s performance in it. “If there’s a positive story about Best Supporting Actress nominee Anne Hathaway having lunch at The Ivy, that’s not going to be counted,” he says.
The editor also estimates that, by the time the Academy Awards are handed out on Feb. 24, the algorithm will have evaluated more than a million mentions that it has evaluated on the Internet.
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